A framework for interpreting an uncertain future

Can you hear a voice like this?

‘No one’s up for the challenge’
‘I may be good at getting out of tight spots, but I can’t anticipate what’s coming and act accordingly’

“I can’t come up with any unexpected ideas. I’m just looking for the right answer.”

It is not a question of personal ability.
It is simply that nobody has ever been trained to ‘think about the future for themselves’.

Five Perspectives on Interpreting the Future

RESET Analysis® is a methodology developed by TIC that re-examines five key elements—rules, the natural environment, society, economic value and technology—to facilitate forward-looking management, planning and activities.

Rule｜Rule

This is the final step to consider among the five elements. It focuses on domestic and international policies, regulations and treaties, as well as changes in social norms, that are likely to emerge in the near future.

Once hypotheses regarding the natural environment, society, economic value and technology have been established, we should anticipate trends in relevant regulations and consider which rules might act as triggers. By taking into account not only legislation but also ‘soft law’ in the form of social norms, we can begin to take action before definitive information becomes available.

Environment｜Natural Environment

This study focuses on changes in the natural environment that may occur in the near future.

Taking into account future trends such as climate change and ecosystem degradation, we consider how these might affect our company’s services and products. Changes in the natural environment form the very foundation of all human activity; it is precisely this perspective—which is not covered by PEST analysis—that brings to light risks and opportunities that are often overlooked.

Social｜Society

The focus will be on changes in values within local communities, culture and daily life (including ways of working, learning and living).

By observing shifts in the social climate and anticipating changes in the natural environment, we reflect on how people will live and conduct their lives in the future. By considering how this will affect our products and services, we can identify early signs before they are reflected in the figures.

Economic Value

We focus on items and situations that are likely to lose their economic value or gain in economic value.

Based on anticipated societal changes, we should formulate hypotheses regarding ‘what will become obsolete and what will emerge or regain prominence’. Rather than merely reacting to market shifts reflected in figures, by identifying shifts in ‘value itself’, it becomes easier to make decisions regarding investment and withdrawal.

Technology｜Technology

We will focus on emerging technologies and those that are being re-evaluated.

By researching trends in new technologies and formulating the hypothesis that ‘if this technology becomes widespread, how will the structure of the industry change?’, you can identify unexpected competitive advantages and business opportunities by anticipating which ‘outdated technologies’ will be re-evaluated in light of shifts in environmental, social and economic values. Furthermore, by adopting the perspective of ‘how would people’s lives and economic values change if these technologies were to become widespread?’, your thinking will naturally progress to the next cycle.

RESET analysis can also be utilised for horizon scanning (an activity that identifies signs likely to have a significant impact on society in the future, and assesses potential risks and opportunities).

There are things that cannot be seen through a PEST/PESTEL analysis alone.

Explanatory video(Vimeo)

What will change with the RESET analysis?

When you view the world through the lens of a hypothesis, the way you interpret the daily news changes. You develop a habit of digging deeper into the background of information, and the connections between various elements become clear.

"The news looked completely different."

‘I wish I’d known sooner.’

This is not just the view of management; it is something that employees who have attended the course say quite naturally.

I am in charge of corporate planning at a company that manufactures steel reinforcement bars for the construction and building materials industries.

We utilised RESET when formulating new business strategies and identifying business risks. Whilst PEST analysis is useful for considering macro factors in the external environment (Political, Economic, Social, Technological), it falls short in covering ‘changes in the natural environment’, ‘outdated technologies’ that may be subject to review, and ‘soft law’ such as social norms. The perspective that these factors interact dynamically proved particularly apt for analysing the rapidly changing world of today.

Taking into account forecasts that future weather conditions will see an increase in damage caused not only by rain but also by wind, we are currently developing repair products with the consumer in mind.

鋼材加工業の経営企画部のT.Sさん

Horizon Scanning　ホライゾン・スキャニングとは

RESET analysis can also be utilised for horizon scanning.

Horizon scanning is a method that developed in the fields of futurism and policy-making between the latter half of the 20th century and the early 21st century; it gained widespread recognition following its adoption by organisations such as the UK Government’s UK Foresight Programme, the EU and the United Nations.

The key to horizon scanning lies in identifying subtle signs that are not yet recognised as clear trends. In order to anticipate developments that could bring about significant change in the future, it is important to identify early indications—in areas such as technology, society, the environment, business and the economy—that are currently only being discussed by a select few experts or within cutting-edge fields.

By utilising RESET analysis (based on five perspectives: rules, the natural environment, society, economic value and technology), it becomes possible to organise and identify these signs more systematically, thereby contributing to the objectives of horizon scanning: ‘early risk detection’, ‘exploration of new opportunities’ and ‘strategic decision-making’.